Rate Lock Advisory

Monday, June 25th

Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory as stocks start the week with heavy selling. The Dow is currently down 281 points while the Nasdaq has fallen 125 points. The bond market is currently up 5/32 (2.87%), which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates approximately .125 of a discount point over Friday’s early pricing.

5/32


Bonds


30 yr - 2.87%

281


Dow


24,299

125


NASDAQ


7,567

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Low


Neutral


New Home Sales

May's New Home Sales data kicked off this week’s calendar at 10:00 AM ET. The Commerce Department announced a 6.7% increase in sales of newly constructed homes. This was a larger increase than was expected. However, the increase is being attributed entirely on sales in one region. The other regions were either flat or declined. While the larger increase is technically bad news for bonds and mortgage rates, it actually hasn’t had much of an impact on this morning’s trading as focus appears to be on the stock selling.

Medium


Unknown


None

The rest of the week brings us the release of five more economic reports that may influence mortgage rates along with two Treasury auctions. A couple of these reports certainly can cause a change in mortgage rates, but none are considered to be key releases. We have at least one event set for release each day, meaning it will probably be a moderately active week for mortgage rates.

Medium


Unknown


Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board)

June's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is next, coming at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow morning. This data is relevant to the financial markets because it measures consumer willingness to spend. If consumers are more confident about their own financial and employment situations, they are more apt to make large purchases in the near future, fueling economic growth. If it shows a sizable increase in confidence from last month, we can expect to see a negative reaction in bonds and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for a reading of 127.1, down from last month's 128.0 reading. The lower the reading, the better the news it is for bonds and mortgage rates.

Medium


Unknown


None

Overall, Wednesday looks to be the most important day due to the importance of the Durable Goods Orders report. Friday’s data is also fairly important, so don’t be surprised to see a noticeable move in rates that day also. Besides general stock movement, we also are on alert for tariff-related news that can influence the global markets and affect mortgage rates. There is only one economic report that we can consider highly important this week, but there still is a good chance of seeing noticeable movement in the financial and mortgage markets. Therefore, please proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.